Dodgers at Mets. The best team in the NL (make that all of baseball) vs. the “should’ve been” best team in the NL. How can you not look at the Mets and see the biggest disappointment in baseball so far this season? Even Johan seems uncomfortably human. The Dodgers have maintained their disciplined play on both sides of the plate since Manny’s suspension. And now that the slugger is about to return, you can only expect them to keep winning and extend that lead over the Giants in their division. They throw Clayton Kershaw, whose 3.5 ERA speaks louder about his positives than his 5-5 record on a team with such a high winning percentage. I like Kershaw’s nearly 100 K’s, but his 1.31 WHIP, while decent like his ERA, is nothing to strike fear into opponents. They know they can get on base against this guy. The Mets counter with Mike Pelfrey, who has a better record but worse ERA and WHIP, and about half as many K’s. The matchup is a wild-card, so I’d stick to the fundamentals for betting on this one. Neither team is particularly hot right now, both about .500 in their last 10 games. But here’s where I’m going to throw a twist in it for you – I expect the Mets to win this game. They have the best batting average in the National League, and while their pitching is in the bottom third, Pelfrey is certainly not one of their major problems. He can hold his own, and I’d expect him to. Even with Manny’s fresh legs and arms back swinging for the fences, I think the Dodgers’ offense will be contained enough in this one where the Mets bats can overpower Kershaw and turn in a winner. Dodgers will be favored nicely, but I say buck the trend on this one and give the Mets a go. Dodgers – 155, Mets +135.

Reds at Phillies. The Reds have been one of those online baseball betting teams this year that you thought for sure was turning a corner as a franchise after a month, and now wonder how far they’ll fall below .500. Sure, injuries have played a part. I’m not blaming them, I’m just saying. Harang pitches – another guy whose record looks worse than his actual performance (i.e. ERA). He’ll get enough K’s to keep the score down, but his WHIP suggests you can count on some control issues and walks, as well. That’s bad news against the Phillies, who still do a great job capitalizing on others’ teams errors. The Phillies offer up J.A. Happ, who’s started only 7 games this year but has a remarkable 5-0 record with a respectable 3 ERA. He’s averaging about 5K’s per game, and has a nice 1.2 WHIP to more or less coincide with his ERA. Reliable numbers for the NL. The Phillies are in dogfighting mode already, so you can expect their A-game in every effort from here on until October. They’re clinging first place in the East, with Florida right there and, yes, the Mets, only two games back. It’s amazing how the Phillies are where they are, though, and speaks volumes to their presence as a team. They’re in the last third in batting average, and basically at the bottom in terms of team ERA, yet still in 1st, albeit with a record that barely pokes its head above .500. Still, they’re home, and I don’t think the Reds have enough firepower to knock the Phillies off the block in this one. The return will be weak, so you might want to bet the over if it’s at 8 or fewer runs. Phillies -125, Reds +115.